Product Insight: Why A/B Testing Is Just Educated Guessing

By H. M. R. Kok – Ousia.Consulting

Why We Publish Product Insights

At Ousia Consulting, we believe that products are more than features, interfaces, or funnels. They are extensions of human identity: tools and experiences that help people express themselves, achieve their goals, and feel competent in their environment. When a product is aligned with human identity, adoption, engagement, and satisfaction grow naturally.

This insight is drawn entirely from publicly observable principles, patterns, and widely documented industry practices. Its goal is to challenge assumptions and spark reflection on how we measure, optimize, and understand products.

Knowing the "why" is vital to understanding what is actually happening.

A/B Testing: Guesswork Disguised as Science

A/B testing is a standard practice in product management. Companies test two versions of a button, headline, or checkout flow and measure conversion. On the surface, it feels scientific: a controlled experiment, measurable outcomes, data-driven decisions. Yet, despite decades of practice, A/B testing rarely delivers transformative insights. Why?

Because testing alone ignores the why. It measures what works, not why it works. It is reactive, incremental, and often context-bound. A winning variant in one test may fail in another audience, region, or week. The approach treats human behavior as a black box: we can observe outputs, but we rarely understand inputs.

The Ousia Approach: Identity-Driven Product Testing

Ousia advocates a different lens: start with understanding the human identity behind the behavior. Every user is trying to complete something — a task, a goal, an aspiration — and products that align with that underlying identity create deeper, more predictable adoption.

Instead of testing blindly, begin with:

1. Psychological & Behavioral Analysis – Understand motivations, frustrations, and identity triggers of your user segments. Who are they? What do they want to become through your product?

2. Hypothesis Based on Identity Alignment – Instead of guessing which button converts best, hypothesize how design, language, or feature changes resonate with user identity.

3. Targeted Experiments – Test ideas explicitly linked to identity-driven hypotheses. Measure outcomes, but interpret them in the context of alignment with the underlying motivations.

4. Iterative Coherence – Use the insights not just to optimize a single flow, but to ensure that every interaction consistently reinforces the user’s sense of self and aspiration.

Why This Works

By grounding product experiments in identity:

• Adoption becomes more predictable.

• Incremental tweaks create lasting impact because they reinforce meaning, not just behavior.

• Your product becomes an enabler of identity, not just a tool.

The Challenge and the Opportunity

Most organizations are still trapped in surface-level metrics and incremental experiments. The opportunity lies in combining rigorous measurement with deep understanding of human identity. This approach reduces wasted cycles, creates stronger emotional attachment, and allows product teams to design with confidence rather than guesswork.

Closing Thought

A/B testing alone is never enough. To truly move the needle, products must meet humans where they are, reflect who they want to be, and guide them toward meaningful outcomes. By integrating identity into product strategy, organizations can turn experimentation from guesswork into insight, engagement, and impact.

Ousia.Consulting specializes in connecting human identity with product design, helping companies create tools and experiences that people want to use, remember, and rely on.